In an era of rapid climate change, predicting how species distributions will shift is a fundamental challenge for conservation and resource management. For highly mobile marine species, static protected areas are often insufficient. Effective spatial planning requires dynamic, forward-looking tools that can anticipate how animals will respond to changing ocean conditions.

This project addresses this challenge by focusing on the endangered whale shark (Rhincodon typus) in Baja California Sur, a region where the species supports a vital ecotourism economy. By understanding and predicting the drivers of whale shark habitat use, we can move from reactive management to a proactive, climate-ready conservation approach, ensuring the long-term persistence of the species and the economic resilience of the communities that depend on it.

Project Objectives

Our research is designed to create a predictive framework that directly links cutting-edge science to applied management outcomes. The project is centered on three interconnected objectives:

1. Define Critical Whale Shark Habitat and Movement Corridors: We will first synthesize extensive animal tracking data with key oceanographic variables. The primary goal is to identify and delineate the core habitats and seasonal migratory corridors that are essential to the whale shark population in the region, establishing a robust ecological baseline.
2. Forecast Habitat Shifts Under Climate Variability: Using this baseline understanding, we will develop models to project how whale shark distribution is likely to shift in response to large-scale oceanographic events (like El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and long-term climate scenarios. This provides a critical early-warning system for potential changes in habitat suitability.
3. Translate Predictive Science into Dynamic Management Tools: Finally, we will translate our scientific findings into data-driven policy recommendations and adaptive management tools. Through targeted workshops with stakeholders, we will co-develop updated guidelines for conservation policy and sustainable ecotourism, ensuring our science directly supports on-the-ground decision-making.

Scientific Innovation and Broader Impacts

The primary innovation of this project is the development of a high-resolution, near-real-time predictive framework for a large, highly mobile marine species. This work moves beyond traditional, static habitat maps to a dynamic approach that can inform management in near real-time.

The impacts will be both immediate and far-reaching. The project will provide local tourism operators with the scientific foundation needed to implement adaptive, climate-smart management. This will enhance the ecological and economic sustainability of the region’s valuable whale shark ecotourism industry. Furthermore, the modeling framework developed here will serve as a powerful and replicable template for the conservation of other migratory species in marine ecosystems globally.